An Integrated Approach for Development of a Decision Support System for Early Surveillance of Japanese Encephalitis: a Remote Sensing-based study in Conjunction with Epidemiological Scenario in Assam, India

Abstract

Abstract. Japanese Encephalitis (JE) is one of the serious mosquito borne viral diseases mostly prevalent in India and many of the South Asian countries. A comprehensive study was conducted in Dibrugarh, a JE endemic district of Assam taking into the account of the environmental and social factors that determine the outbreak of the disease. Effect of environmental and climatic factors on mosquito vector densities was investigated using geospatial tools and techniques. Wetlands were found to be the most preferred habitat type for most of the JE-transmitting mosquitoes followed by paddy-growing areas and ponds. The villages abundant with these habitats or located nearby were found to be more vulnerable to JE risk. Based on the spatial distribution of habitat types, villages in the district were divided into three categories of vector abundance and hence the risk of JE. It is found that rainfall (intensity as well as duration) is the most significant determinant in the modulation of mosquito density followed by temperature. It is also observed that the derived models could explain about 61% to 73% variation in mosquito density due to change in weather variables as indicated by R2 values of the Models. Among socio-economic determinants, pig rearing habit of the villagers was found to be most significant. JE risk map was prepared by integrating vector abundance map with the map of host abundance in GIS domain. Attempts were also made to forecast the intensity of JE cases based on a time series analysis of historical morbidity pattern, whereas forecast for onset of the disease was based on the modulation of weather variables in the study area. A web-based decision support system (DSS) developed by integrating the forecasts of JE onset, intensity and JE prone villages has been provided to the concerned health authorities to take timely intervention measures. The JE early warning system developed for Dibrugarh district was extended to two more JE prone districts viz, Sibsagar and Tinsukia as validation sites and observed that the accuracy of forecast was within the range of 69% to 77%. DSS on JE has opened up new opportunities to study similar vector-borne diseases of the JE serogroup viz., West Nile.