An integrated approach based on artificial intelligence and novel meta-heuristic algorithms to predict demand for dairy products: a case study

Abstract

ABSTRACT This research specifically addresses the prediction of dairy product demand (DPD). Since dairy products have a short consumption period, it is important to have accurate information about their future demand. The main contribution of this research is to provide an integrated framework based on statistical tests, time-series neural networks, and improved MLP, ANFIS, and SVR with novel meta-heuristic algorithms in order to obtain the best prediction of DPD in Iran. At first, a series of economic and social indicators that seemed to be effective in the demand for dairy products is identified. Then, the ineffective indices are eliminated by using the Pearson correlation coefficient, and statistically significant variables are determined. Since the regression relation is not able to predict this demand properly, the artificial intelligence tools including MLP, ANFIS, and SVR are implemented and improved with the help of novel meta-heuristic algorithms such as grey wolf optimization (GWO), invasive weed optimization (IWO), cultural algorithm (CA), and particle swarm optimization (PSO). The designed hybrid method is used to predict the DPD in Iran by using data from 2013 to 2017. The high accurate results confirm that the proposed hybrid methods have the ability to improve the prediction of the demand for various products.