An integrated agent-based model of travel demand and package deliveries

Abstract

With the increased shift from in-store shopping to e-commerce, we can expect the share of delivery vehicles in cities to rise as well. This puts great pressure on cities and surrounding areas as emissions rise and space becomes scarce. Because the last leg of the delivery chain is so costly, there have been many studies on how the last-mile issue can be diminished. However, most studies only cover deliveries independently from the orders. This paper presents a modelling approach that integrates travel demand, package orders and subsequent deliveries within the same framework. One of the benefits of the integrated modelling approach is that the model can evaluate the agents’ locations at all times during the simulation. This allows us to model different states of delivery on a microscopic level. We have applied the model to Karlsruhe, Germany with a synthetic population of just over 300.000 agents. The results show that the model simulates both package orders and the subsequent delivery tours realistically. The model framework allows for detailed analysis of delivery states and success rates and can be used for scenario analysis of different delivery methods and changes in online shopping behaviour.