An integer based risk score for predicting 30-day major adverse cardiac or cerebrovascular events after percutaneous coronary intervention with drug-eluting stents: results from a?large prospective multicentre registry, the STENT Group

Abstract

Previous risk models predicting in-hospital major adverse cardiac or cerebrovascular events (MACCE) after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) may underestimate actual short-term post-procedure complications due to the trend toward early discharge of patients. Using a subset (N=10,679) from the STENT Group registry, a logistic regression model was developed to predict 30-day MACCE which includes death, myocardial infarction, target vessel revascularisation and stroke. An integer-based risk score was created from the model and validated in another subset (N=3,099). In the study subset, there was significant difference between in-hospital and 30-day MACCE N=443 (2.0%) vs. 131 (4.2), p<0.01, respectively. A final risk model included nine variables; absence of pre-procedural statin (odds ratio=1.3, 95% confidence interval=1.0-1.5), haemoglobin level (0.9/1 gm increase, 0.8-0.9), cardiogenic shock (4.4, 3.1-6.3), acute congestive heart failure (1.6, 1.2-2.3), left main disease (2.2, 1.3-3.7), left anterior descending artery lesion (1.3, 1.0-1.5), ostial lesion (1.6, 1.2-2.1), coronary thrombosis (2.0, 1.4-2.9) and ACC/AHA type C lesion (1.3, 1.1-1.6). The c-statistics of the final model were 0.653 and 0.692 in the study and validation subset, respectively. In this large real world registry of DES, in-hospital MACCE did not represent short-term post-procedure prognosis. The risk model consisting of nine variables predicted 30-day MACCE with modest discriminatory value.