An institutional analysis of land use modelling in the European Commission

Abstract

The paper aims at describing the environment, actors, practices and dynamics in the context of the European Commission’s Impact Assessment procedures into which a quantitative ex-ante policy assessment tool of land use changes has to be introduced. Both fields - Impact Assessment and land use modelling tools - are only now evolving. The institutions that guide the choice of modelling tools in the IA process are rather unclear. However, if results of the development of modelling tools are to be used, fit to their institutional environment can be enhanced by understanding this setting. This paper is based on problem-centred interviewing at different EC levels, which focussed on these issues. The purpose was to understand the context into which the Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool, which the SENSOR Consortium currently constructs, will be introduced in the European Commission. The paper concludes that the choices of desk officers are informed by their motivation to produce successful policy proposals. Modelling tools that are usable for the Commission’s Impact Assessment furthermore have to be plausible and transparent. They have to rely on official data. Often the use of modelling tools is scrutinised in a variety of fora. Land use issues and the like are of minor importance to the European Commission’s Impact Assessment as land use is not perceived to be a competence of the European Commission.