An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of Nigeria\u2019s Rapid Urban Transition

Kyle Farrell

doi:10.1007/s12132-018-9335-6

Abstract

Owing to the dramatic pace and scale of its transformation, Nigeria is considered Africa’s next urban giant. Between 1960 and 2010, Nigeria added approximately 62.5 million inhabitants to its urban population, with forecasts to 2050 projecting an additional 226 million. As Nigeria forges ahead into the next chapter of its urban transition, there is an unmet need to take stock of past experiences, identify trends, and speculate on future growth trajectories. Taking advantage of recently available datasets from the United Nations and the Africapolis Project, this paper launches an inquiry into the nature and causes of Nigeria’s rapid urban transition between 1960 and 2010. It disaggregates urbanization into its individual components of urban growth and calculates their contributions to the overall urban increment. Several notable findings are highlighted. Nigeria, which is considered a late urbanizer, is currently in the accelerated stage of its urban transition and is projected to enter the terminal stage by 2030. Urban natural population increase has been the dominant component of urban growth in the post-colonial period and will likely continue to be so in the immediate future. Despite this, policies aimed at stemming rural to urban migration appear to have been the preferred mechanism for lessening the pressures posed by the contemporary urban transition, suggesting a potential policy mismatch.

Highlights

Nigeria, which is home to Africa’s largest population, is currently undergoing one of the most dramatic urban transformations in history
The progression of the urban transition is best illustrated through the urbanization curve, which navigates three stages: an initial stage reflecting a predominantly agricultural society with the majority of the population dispersed throughout the rural countryside, to an accelerated stage reflecting a structural transformation of society and a shift in the concentration of the population toward urban areas, and to a final terminal stage reflecting a predominantly industrial society with the majority of the population concentrated in dense urban areas (Northam 1975; Mulligan 2013)
With the unprecedented pace and scale of the urban transition in many developing countries currently outstripping the capacity of local governments to provide the necessary housing, infrastructure, and amenities to cope with a growing urban population, such outcomes are not guaranteed

Summary

Introduction

Nigeria, which is home to Africa’s largest population, is currently undergoing one of the most dramatic urban transformations in history. Owing to the dramatic pace and scale of its transformation, Nigeria is anticipated to be Africa’s urban giant. This paper is premised on the concept of the urban transition, which posits that as a country develops, it undergoes a transformation from a society that is predominantly rural to one that is predominantly urban (Skeldon 1990). As the African country set to experience the largest increase in urban population over the coming decades, Nigeria represents a rather insightful case study in which to launch an inquiry into the nature and causes of its rapid urban transition The progression of the urban transition is best illustrated through the urbanization curve, which navigates three stages: an initial stage reflecting a predominantly agricultural society with the majority of the population dispersed throughout the rural countryside, to an accelerated stage reflecting a structural transformation of society and a shift in the concentration of the population toward urban areas, and to a final terminal stage reflecting a predominantly industrial society with the majority of the population concentrated in dense urban areas (Northam 1975; Mulligan 2013). As the African country set to experience the largest increase in urban population over the coming decades, Nigeria represents a rather insightful case study in which to launch an inquiry into the nature and causes of its rapid urban transition

Objectives

Findings

Discussion

Conclusion