An input-output model for the assessment of labor skill requirements

Abstract

The purpose of this essay is to suggest an analytical framework for estimating manpower requirements by skill categories for the purpose of educational planning. In what follows, we first summarise the classic manpower requirements approach and modify it, through the use of an inter-industry model, in order to take into account second order effects in the generation of the demand for skills. Next, the model is applied to actual data to illustrate the techniques used. Although planning applies to future actions, the model is applied within a known period in the past to permit a more realistic testing of its performance and sensitivity. Special attention is given to the question of the relative sensitivity of results to the technical coefficients of a Leontief inter-sectoral input-output matrix and the intrasectoral occupation coefficients, with the distinctive aspects of substitution and productivity change that these structures reflect.