An Initialization Scheme for Tropical Cyclone Numerical Prediction by Enhancing Humidity in Deep-Convection Region

Abstract

AbstractA nudging scheme for humidity fields is implemented in the Advanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) for tropical cyclone (TC) initialization. The scheme improves TC simulation by enhancing the TC humidity profile in deep-convection regions, where it uses satellite Fengyun 2 cloud-top brightness temperatures as a judging criterion. The impacts of the nudging on predicting TC intensity and structure are evaluated through the simulation of TC Khanun (2005) during its movement toward landfall at the coast of Zhejiang Province, China. During the nudging, the humidity distributions at the TC's inner core and along its outer spiral rainbands, where deep convections occur, are both enhanced. As a result, the intensity of the vortex is enhanced, being more consistent to the best-track data from the China Meteorological Administration. Specifically, the nudging modifies the simulated distribution of humidity according to convective activities captured by the satellite and therefore adjusts the development of deep convection in the model, which then influences the intensity and size of TC vortex through diabatic heating. During WRF simulation, the TC vortex initialized from the humidity nudging is dynamically and thermodynamically balanced with the background field, favoring a steady development of the vortex's intensity and structure. Because of the better simulation of TC inner core and outer spiral rainbands, the WRF simulation skills of TC intensity and track are improved.