An initial investigation into the use of machine learning methods for prediction of carcass component yields in F2 broiler chickens

Abstract

Context As evaluation of carcass components is costly and time consuming, models for prediction of broiler carcass components are useful. Aims The aim was to investigate the feasibility of machine learning methods in the prediction of carcass components from measurements on live birds during the rearing period. Methods Three machine learning methods, including regression tree, random forest and gradient-boosting trees, were applied to predict carcass yields, and benchmarked against classical linear regression. Two scenarios were defined for prediction. In the first scenario, carcass yields were predicted by live bodyweight, shank length and shank diameter features, recorded at 2, 3 and 4 weeks of age. In the second scenario, predictor features recorded at 5, 6 and 7 weeks of age were used. The two scenarios were reanalysed by including effective single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with bodyweight, shank length and shank diameter as new predictor features. Key results The correlation coefficient between predicted and observed values for predicting weight of carcass traits ranged from 0.50 for wing to 0.59 for thigh in the first scenario, and from 0.63 for wing to 0.74 for carcass in the second scenario. These predictions for the percentage of carcass components ranged from 0.30 for wing to 0.39 for carcass and breast in the first scenario, and from 0.34 for thigh to 0.43 for carcass in the second scenario when random forest was used. Conclusions Predictive accuracy in the first scenario was lower than in the second scenario for all prediction methods. Including single-nucleotide polymorphisms as predictor features in either scenario did not increase the accuracy of the prediction. Implications In general, random forest had the best performance among machine learning methods, and classical linear regression in two scenarios, suggesting that it may be considered as an alternative to conventional linear models for prediction of carcass traits in broiler chickens.