Abstract
Energy system management is an important tool for regional energy and environmental development, and many parameters and their interrelationships in energy-environmental management model appear complexity and uncertain. How to deal with these uncertainties and make a reasonable decision schemes are desired for managers. In this study, an inexact two-stage dynamic programming model is developed for regional electricity and heat supply management under considering the complexities and uncertainties in regional energy system. The model can reflect not only uncertainties expressed as probability distribution but also those being available as intervals. The developed model is applied to a case of planning regional electricity and heat supply as well as pollution emission reduction considered. A number of scenarios corresponding to different pollutants emission reduction levels are examined; the results indicated that reasonable solutions have been generated under different pollutants reduction levels. They can be used for generating plans for energy resource/electricity/heat allocation and capacity expansion and help decision makers identify desired regional electricity and heat supply which need minimum cost under various standards of pollutants emission reduction control.
Highlights
Energy system management is an important tool for regional energy and environmental development, and many parameters and their interrelationships in energy-environmental management model appear complexity and uncertain
The interval results provide managers multiple decision alternatives and form the basis for further study of trade-offs between electricity and heat management cost and so-caused gaseous pollutants emission reduction in electricity and heat generation; the binary variable solutions stand for the decisions of facility expansion, so that several alternative schemes are generated; the continuous variable solutions are interrelated to electricity and heat generation and energy resources supply
Natural gas-fired electricity conversion technology would play a key role in the power generation activities, coal-fired power would be in a second place and wind power would be the supplement under 10% and 20% pollutants emissions reduction
Summary
Energy system management is an important tool for regional energy and environmental development, and many parameters and their interrelationships in energy-environmental management model appear complexity and uncertain. Urban air quality is one of the hot topics, and some air pollutant emissions are from burning fossil fuels such as coal, natural gas which mainly generated in electricity and heat supply, especially, during long winter heating period which is the most serious air quality damage season. Kwaczek et al (1996) put forward an optimization model for comprehending economic impacts of various emission-reduction strategies on energy activities in Saskatchewan. Klaassen and Riahi (2007) utilized the long-term MESSAGE (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact) to analyze energy planning management and climate change response. Chung et al (2009) conducted a hybrid E-IO (Energy top-down approach) table which has higher classification sector resolutions to determine the strength of optimization model for making clear of economic impacts from various emission-reduction strategies on energy activities in Saskatchewan, Canada
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