An inexact two-stage fractional energy systems planning model

Abstract

In this study, an inexact two-stage fractional energy systems planning model (ITF-ESP) is developed through an integration of interval-parameter programming (IPP), two-stage stochastic programming (TSP), fractional programming (FP), and mixed integer linear programming (MILP) methods. Since the proposed model could not be solved directly, it is converted into two interactive sub-models. In order to obtain more precise interval solutions, the sub-model corresponding to f−is solved first. The developed ITF-ESP model is considered as an efficient approach to address dual-objective optimization problems involving capacity expansion issues and policy scenario analysis, as well as uncertainties described as intervals and probability distributions. Effectiveness of the ITF-ESP model is demonstrated through a case study within a Chinese context. The results indicate that although the non-renewable technologies would still play a major role in electricity generation, the renewable technologies are becoming increasingly significant. Comparisons of the ITF-ESP model and the least-cost model are conducted to illustrate the advantages of the proposed ITF-ESP model in reflecting trade-offs between economic development and environmental protection. In addition, compared with the chance-constrained two-stage fractional optimization model (CTFO), interval solutions obtained from the ITF-ESP model can provide multiple alternative management plans in terms of electricity generation and capacity expansion.