An Individual Based Model of the Impact of Suboptimal Habitat on Survival of the Grey Bush Cricket, Platycleis Albopunctata (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae)

Abstract

We developed an individual based model that investigates the importance of suboptimal habitats for the survival of the grey bush cricket Platycleis albopunctata living in a core habitat. Our model consists of two submodels. The first describes the demographic growth of the cricket known to mainly depend on temperature. The second introduces a simple heterogeneous habitat that consists of two areas of variable size and different suitability for reproduction. An optimal habitat is surrounded by a suboptimal habitat and both together are located within an unsuitable area. Applying Monte Carlo simulations we demonstrate that the extinction probability of a bush cricket population is significantly lower in an optimal habitat with a surrounding suboptimal habitat than without. Even small suboptimal habitats are sufficient to significantly reduce the extinction risk of the core population. For a bush cricket population living in a heterogeneous habitat mean minimum viable population estimates range from 13 000 to 15 000 adults, whereas 30 000 adults are required for a population living in an optimal habitat without a surrounding suboptimal habitat. Thus, the presence of a suboptimal habitat can reduce minimum viable population by 50%. For any species, our model predicts that the type of dispersal between optimal and suboptimal habitat and the type of habitat selection determine whether suboptimal habitat is useful or detrimental for species persistence.