An indicative costed plan for the mitigation of global risks

Abstract

An integrated risk management method is developed for the task of addressing global risks—those threatening the destruction of civilisation, humanity, life on Earth, or the entire planet. Use of the method produced four main results. First, the following risks were classified as global risks: an avian influenza pandemic; scientific experiments which change the fabric of the universe in ways not previously seen in nature; global-warming, especially either releasing methane from methane clathrates or causing a new ice age; biovorous nanoreplicators; computers or robots surpassing human accomplishment; super-eruption; nuclear exchange (full superpower arsenals); strike by large asteroid or comet; eruption of continental flood basalts; and a massive pulse of cosmic rays. Second, it was found that responses are capable of development for each risk. Third, a comprehensive scan for potential interactions between risks and responses found that solar and wind energy (mooted as an alternative to global-warming fossil fuels) would be greatly reduced or uncertain during a super-eruption winter. Two energy options both address global warming and are robust against super-eruption: geothermal and nuclear. Of these, geothermal energy seems lower-risk than nuclear. Finally, the full suite of required responses is estimated to cost approximately $67 trillion. Starting now but introduced over the multi-decade timeframes generally available, this budget would represent a surprisingly small 2.2 per cent of gross world product per year. By contrast, US expenditure on World War II in 1944 was 35 per cent of GNP.