Abstract
Abstract This work presents the development of a composite Index of Susceptibility to Drought (ISD) for semiarid Brazilian Northeast that considers climatology, physical properties, soil usage, social and economic aspects, the risk of harvest losses and the shortage of human and animal drinking water. The index started with the Index FUNCEME of drought Severity (IFS), developed by FUNCEME. Then, it evolved to use some tools proposed by the Joint Research Centre/Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (JRC/OECD), as well as techniques of multiple imputation for missing data and data winsorization. The work was tested and validated with real data from Rio Grande do Norte State in three climatologic scenarios (dry, regular and rainy). A multivariate analysis test and a Monte Carlo simulation were also produced for a sensibility and strength analysis of the developed model. These analyses validated the composition model and the obtained results with real data. The ISD can be used as a tool to support decision makers in various government levels to help guide the actions for the drought-affected areas.
Highlights
The phenomenon of drought is characterized by the partial or total absence of rain or by its irregular distribution
The construction of the Index of Susceptibility to Drought (ISD) started with the Index FUNCEME of drought Severity (IFS) (Ensslin et al, FUNCEME, 2000; Silva and Forte, 2002) using the same dimensions and weights or importance levels, and it evolved by using as a methodological basis some tools for the construction of composite indicators proposed by the JRC/OECD (Nardo et al, 2009)
For the ISD test and validation with real data, scenarios were chosen that represent the conditions of dry, Tabela 2 - Degree of susceptibility to drought for the Rio Grande do Norte state
Summary
The phenomenon of drought is characterized by the partial or total absence of rain or by its irregular distribution. In Brazil, the Northeast Semiarid region is the region most affected by drought, with the first historical record of this phenomenon occurring in the XVI century (Dantas, 1961; Guerra, 1981; Carvalho, 1988). Droughts have been repeatedly recorded in the region, with harmful effects, on agriculture, livestock and the water supply of urban and rural populations (Dantas, 1961; Guerra, 1981; Duarte, 2002; Moreira Filho, 2002; Pessoa, 2002; Freitas, 2005). During the ENSO-positive phase, the Northeast Semiarid region experiences a seasonal decrease in rains and an increase in drought intensity (Alves et al, 1998; Brunini et al, 2005; Andreoli and Kayano, 2007; Mendonça and Danni-Oliveira, 2007; Araújo et al, 2008; Gonzalez et al, 2013; Kayano et al, 2013; Kayano and Capistrano, 2014)
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