An Index of General Business Conditions, 1875-1913

Abstract

THE accompanying chart presents a bimonthly index of general business conditions for the period I875-I9I3 consisting of three curves representing, respectively, speculation, business, and money (Chart i of the insert).' For the interval I903-I3 the index is that published in this REVIEW in January I924.2 For the interval I875-I902 the index is here published for the first time. The purpose of the present article is to describe the method of construction of the index for the earlier period, to discuss the relations existing between the fluctuations of its constituents compared with the relations found to exist between the curves for the i i years immediately preceding the war, and to make a brief survey of the period I875-I902 in the light of the new index. This index, like the one for I903-I3, is based upon corrected statistics. That is to say, the constituent statistical series of the three curves of the index of general business conditions have been adjusted for secular trend and seasonal variation. The following discussion relates to the fluctuations of the adjusted and not the actual series, unless otherwise specified.