Abstract
It is a common belief that computer performance growth is over 50% annually, or that performance doubles every 18-20 months. By analyzing publicly available results from the SPEC integer (CINT) benchmark suites, we conclude that this was true between 1985 and 1996 -- the early years of the RISC paradigm.During the last 7.5 years (1996-2004), however, performance growth has slowed down to 41%, with signs of a continuing decline. Meanwhile, clock frequency has improved with about 29% annually. The improvement in clock frequency was enabled both by an annual device speed scaling of 20% as well as by longer pipelines with a lower gate-depth in each stage. This paper takes a fresh look at -- and tries to remove the confusion about -- performance scaling that exists in the computer architecture community.
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