An independent external validation of melanoma risk prediction models using the Australian Melanoma Family Study.

Abstract

Risk prediction models, which include a combination of risk factors, have been developed as a more accurate way of estimating risk and personalising preventive interventions. Many melanoma risk prediction models have been published but few have been independently validated.1 We aimed to externally validate 12 melanoma risk prediction models using the Australian Melanoma Family Study (AMFS), a population-based, case-control-family study comprising 629 incident first-primary melanoma cases, 240 population-based controls ascertained using the electoral roll (voting is compulsory) and 295 spouse or friend controls.2 Recruitment took place from 2001 to 2005 in the states of New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria.