An Independent Cascade Propagation Model of Vespa Mandarinia Population with Propagation Index

Abstract

The Vespa mandarinia disaster has been a problem all over the world. In the prevention and control of Vespa mandarinia, the efficiency is often low and a lot of social resources are wasted because of the inability to effectively predict the spread of Vespa mandarinia. Therefore, this paper proposes a propagation model based on independent cascade. Based on the traditional propagation model, the habit factor and propagation index are added, which makes the habit and reproduction of wasps fully considered. Vespa mandarinia tend to migrate to the water edge, and the nodes closer to the water edge in the pro- pagation model are more likely to be activated. The longer the Vespa mandarinia nests exist, the higher the probability of having more Vespa mandarinia, and the longer the nodes exist in the propagation model, the stronger the propagation ability. The model is validated by the real Vespa mandarinia disaster data in the United States in 2019, which proves that the propagation model considering Vespa mandarinia habits and reproduction will have better performance.