An Incomplete Arc: Analyzing the Potential for Violent Conflict in the Republic of Vanuatu

Abstract

Introduction This paper seeks to analyze the potential for violent conflict in the Republic of Vanuatu, a small island state in the South West Pacific. More specifically, it examines the likelihood of state level conflict and investigates local factors which might contribute to state destabilization. While conflict scholars have long engaged in the study of conflicts in the African and Balkan regions, engagements with Pacific conflicts have been comparatively recent. In particular, the Bougainville Crisis (1988-1997), the Indonesian suppression of West Papuan independence, post-referendum violence in East Timor (1999), the removal of democratically elected governments in Fiji and Solomon Islands (2000) and declining lawfulness in Papua New Guinea have ignited concerns over regional security. Indeed, the region to Australia's immediate north and northeast has gained global notoriety as an of instability or of crisis,1 replete with weak, failing and failed states.2 As members of the arc, the countries of East Timor, West Papua, Papua New Guinea, Nauru, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Fiji are said to share a host of characteristics and experiences, ranging from lawlessness to civil war and including ethnic conflict, political instability, economic dysfunction and poor human development. In recent times, particular attention has been paid by academics, journalists and policy makers (specifically from Australia and New Zealand) to the Melanesian states of the arc (Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Fiji), stimulating critical debate about Australia's relations with the region,3 the development of a national conflict