An In-Depth Analysis of 1370 Consecutive Abdominoplasties: Fascial Plication Increases Risk of Venous Thromboembolism, and Scoring for Plication Improves the Caprini Risk Assessment Model.

Abstract

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is the most dangerous complication of abdominoplasty. One relatively undefined risk factor is plication, which in theory increases VTE risk. To assess the thromboembolic risk of plication. A retrospective review of 1370 consecutive abdominoplasties by one surgeon was undertaken. Two groups were considered, plicated (n= 1089) and non-plicated (n = 281), and VTE rates were compared between these groups. There were 25/1089 cases of VTE (2.3%) in plicated patients and 1/281 case of VTE (0.36%) in non-plicated patients, which was statistically significant (Fisher's exact test, p=0.028) despite the non-plicated group being a higher risk population. Case-Control matching yielded 225 pairs which differed statistically only by the presence or absence of plication; there were 12/225(5.3%) VTE events in the plicated group and 0/225 in the non-plicated group (McNemar's test, p=0.0015). Logistic regression demonstrated increased VTE risk with increasing age (OR 1.08, p<0.001), BMI (OR 1.34, p=0.002), Caprini score (OR 2.17, p<0.001), and especially plication (OR 16.76, p=0.008). Adding two points for plication to Caprini scores offered better risk stratification at a level of 7, with an improved combination of sensitivity/specificity (0.31/0.98 vs 0.69/0.96) and a 27% improvement over the 2005 Caprini RAM in the area under a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (0.826 vs 0.651, Z-value -3.596, p = 0.003). Plication was shown to be a powerful risk factor for the development of VTE in abdominoplasty. Abdominal wall plication should be considered in risk assessment, and scoring for plication may improve the performance of the Caprini RAM.