An improvement of the mass flux convection parameterization scheme and its sensitivity tests for seasonal prediction over China

Abstract

A modified cumulus parameterization scheme, suitable for use in a seasonal forecast model, is presented. This parameterization scheme is an improvement of the mass flux convection scheme developed by Gregory and Rowntree (1989; 1990). This convection scheme uses a “bulk” cloud model to present an ensemble of convective clouds, and aims to represent shallow, deep, and mid-level convection. At present, this convection scheme is employed in the NCC T63L20 model (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration). Simulation results with this scheme have revealed some deficiencies in the scheme, although to some extent, it improves the accuracy of the simulation. In order to alleviate the deficiencies and reflect the effect of cumulus convection in the actual atmosphere, the scheme is modified and improved. The improvements include (i) the full estimation of the effects of the large-scale convergence in the lower layer upon cumulus convection, (ii) the revision of the initial convective mass flux, and (iii) the regulation of convective-scale downdrafts. A comparison of the results obtained by using the original model and the modified one shows that the improvement and modification of the original convection scheme is successful in simulating the precipitation and general circulation field, because the modified scheme provides a good simulation of the main features of seasonal precipitation in China, and an analysis of the anomaly correlation coefficient between the simulation and the observations confirms the improved results.