Abstract
The Kuo-type cumulus parameterization and rainfall rate scheme is extended by including the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), the local time rate of change of OLR, and the horizontal Laplacian of OLR to include the additional source of mesoscale moisture supply. The extended scheme remains simple and efficient. A series of 5-day forecasts of the 1979 monsoon for the tropical belt between the Arabian Sea and the western Pacific Ocean show improvement in the 3-day forecast in the daily accumulated precipitation in both the amount and location. Further RMS error analyses indicate that using OLR and the Laplacian of OLR also produces a significant improvement in a 3-day forecast. Additional tests of the extended scheme for the 1987 and 1988 monsoons produced consistent and characteristic areal rainfall rates in the tropics. The improvement in the “OLR model” forecasts is attributed to the improved skill of OLR forecast in the forecast model as the RMS errors for 5 consecutive days in the 6 experimental forecasts are smaller than those of the 3 control forecasts.
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