An Improved Strategy for Real-Time Troposphere Estimation and Its Application in the Severe Weather Event Monitoring

Abstract

The water vapor content in the atmosphere is highly correlated with rainfall events, which can be used as a data source for rainfall prediction or drought monitoring. The GNSS PPP (Precise Point Positioning) technique can be used to estimate the troposphere ZWD (Zenith Wet Delay) parameter which can be converted into precipitable water vapor (PWV). In this study, we first investigate the impacts of the weighting strategies, observation noise settings, and gradient estimation on the accuracy of ZWD and positions. A refined strategy is proposed for the troposphere estimation with uncombined raw PPP model, down-weighting of Galileo/GLONASS/BDS code observation by a factor of 3, using a sine2-type elevation-dependent weighting function and estimating the horizontal gradients. Based on the strategy, the correlation of the estimated tropospheric parameters with the rainfall is analyzed based on the data from the “7.20” rainstorm in Henan Province, China. The PWV is first calculated based on the hourly global pressure and temperature (HGPT) model and compared with the results from ERA5 products. Results show their good consistency during the rainfall period or the normal period with a standard deviation of 3 mm. Then, the high correlation between the PWV and the heavy rain rainfall event is validated. Results show that the accumulated PWV maintains a high level before the rainstorm if a sustainable water supply is available, while it decreased rapidly after the rainfall. In comparison, the horizontal gradients and the satellite residuals are less correlated with the water vapor content. However, the gradients can be used to indicate the horizontal asymmetry of the water vapor in the atmosphere.