An Improved Rainfall Forecasting Model Based on GNSS Observations

Abstract

Except for its known aspects of positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT), the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) has extended its application to the rainfall forecasting. GNSS-derived zenith total delay (ZTD) or precipitable water vapor (PWV) has been used as a single factor to predict the occurrence of rainfall; however, the rainfall is highly correlated with myriad atmospheric parameters, which cannot be perfectly reflected by a single predictor. In this article, an improved rainfall forecasting model (IRFM) is proposed to forecast the rainfall. The IRFM considers five predictors: monthly PWV value, seasonal PWV/ZTD variations, and their first derivatives: it can forecast rainfall using a single predicator or an arbitrary combination of those predicators. The merit of IRFM is reducing the false forecasted rainfall (FFR) events and missed detected rainfall (MDR) events as much as possible while guaranteeing the true detected rainfall (TDR) events. An optimized selecting principle of predictors' threshold has been determined using the percentile method. The test experiment has been performed using five GNSS stations derived from continuously operating reference system (CORS) network of Zhejiang province, China. The analysis reveals that the IRFM considering five predictors provides a better performance than that only using a single predictor or a combination of arbitrary predictors. The statistical result shows the average TDR value of more than 95%, FFR value of less than 30%, and MDR of less than 5%, respectively. Compared to the existing rainfall forecasting methods using ZTD or PWV, the IRFM reduces the FFR and MDR, respectively, with the lowest values, while the TDR value is the highest.