Abstract
In recent years, the nonhomogeneous grey model has received much attention owing to its flexibility and applicability of forecasting small samples. To improve further the prediction accuracy of the nonhomogeneous grey model, this paper is to introduce a new whitening equation with variable coefficient into the original nonhomogeneous grey model, which is abbreviated as ONGM1,1,k,c. First of all, the detailed computational steps of the time response function of the novel model and the restored values of the raw data sequence are deduced through grey modelling techniques. Secondly, two empirical examples from the previous literature are conducted to prove the validity of the novel model. Finally, the novel model is applied to forecast natural gas demand of China, and the results show that the novel model has a better prediction performance compared with other commonly used grey models, including GM1,1, DGM1,1, NGM1,1,k,c, and NGBM1,1.
Highlights
Grey prediction model is one of the key branches in grey system theory [1], which has been widely used in various fields, including industry [2, 3], engineering [4, 5], and especially energy [6,7,8] on account of its abilities of sufficiently dealing with small sample-sized problems
Based on the aforementioned knowledge, this paper introduces a new whitening equation with variable coefficient into the nonhomogeneous grey model to further enhance the prediction ability of the traditional nonhomogeneous grey model, which is abbreviated ONGM(1, 1, k, c). e novelties of this paper are drawn as follows: (i) a new whitening equation with variable coefficient is considered into the nonhomogeneous grey model; (2) the time response function and the restored values of the original series are deduced in detail; (3) the two empirical examples are used to validate the effectiveness of the novel model; and (4) the novel model is applied in natural gas demand of China
Aimed to improve further the prediction performance of the nonhomogeneous grey model, a new whitening equation with variable coefficient is introduced into the nonhomogeneous grey model; as a result of this paper, ONGM(1, 1, k, c) is proposed. e main contributions of this paper can be summarized as follows: (1) A new whitening equation with variable coefficient is introduced into the traditional nonhomogeneous grey model to further generalize the mathematical form of the nonhomogeneous grey model
Summary
Grey prediction model is one of the key branches in grey system theory [1], which has been widely used in various fields, including industry [2, 3], engineering [4, 5], and especially energy [6,7,8] on account of its abilities of sufficiently dealing with small sample-sized problems. Ma et al [21] proposed a novel nonlinear multivariable grey Bernoulli model to forecast tourism income of China, among them. It is worth noting the accumulation appeared in these models is all integer-order accumulation that impairs the prediction accuracy of forecasting models. E novelties of this paper are drawn as follows: (i) a new whitening equation with variable coefficient is considered into the nonhomogeneous grey model; (2) the time response function and the restored values of the original series are deduced in detail; (3) the two empirical examples are used to validate the effectiveness of the novel model; and (4) the novel model is applied in natural gas demand of China.
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