An improved MUSLE model incorporating the estimated runoff and peak discharge predicted sediment yield at the watershed scale on the Chinese Loess Plateau

Abstract

An accurate prediction of sediment yield at the watershed scale is critical not only for sustainable watershed management but also for improving knowledge regarding the relationship between sediment yield and its determinant factors, which often rely on the varying model complexity. In this study, a modified sediment yield formula based on the modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE) model was developed by introducing a channel factor into the original formula. The reliability of the proposed method was tested using data from 1,341 storm events in 38 watersheds and was applied to 256 storm events in five application watersheds using the optimized parameters. Results indicated that the proposed method is very accurate, as demonstrated by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 88.18 %, 85.72 %, and 85.51 % during calibration, validation, and application, respectively. The performance of the proposed model was superior to that of the original MUSLE model. Subsequently, the proposed method was used to predict sediment yield from the last five typical watersheds. This prediction utilized the parameters derived from the initial 38 watersheds; the peak discharge predicted by the modified Chemicals, Runoff, and Erosion from Agricultural Management Systems (CREAMS); and the runoff estimated by the modified Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. Elevated NSE (61.88–81.42 %) and low root mean square error values (2.35–11.40 t ha−1) were calculated for the five watersheds. From the results, the proposed sediment yield model, combined with the modified SCS-CN method and CREAMS, was found to accurately predict the event-based sediment yield, peak discharge, and runoff in the Loess Plateau region under varying hydrological and geomorphic conditions.