An improved model for the synthetic generation of high temporal resolution direct normal irradiation time series

Abstract

Several studies have confirmed the relevant impact of the resolution and frequency distribution of solar radiation data on the results of detailed production models. Many of the available direct normal irradiance (DNI) databases generated from the satellite images have an hourly resolution. In the present work, we have proposed improvements to an existing model for the generation of 10-min synthetic DNI data from the hourly average DNI values. In the original model, the irradiance is divided into a deterministic and a stochastic component, i.e., the contribution from the hourly mean and stochastic fluctuation obtained from the mean depending on the sky condition, respectively. We have implemented several improvements, and the most relevant is the consistency of the synthetic data with the state of the sky. The adaptation and application of the model to the location of Seville show significant improvements over its predecessor as it achieved 7% rRMSD in hourly values and 1% rRMSD in daily values and presented a realistic frequency distribution in the 10-min resolution. In comparison with the original model, the application of the improved model showed significant performance improvements without any further adaptations to other locations with different climatological characteristics than Seville.