Abstract

This paper presents an improved model for improving headway‐based bus route service reliability at bus stops using real‐time preventive operation control, taking into account dynamic interaction among random passenger demand, stochastic driving conditions of route segments, and vehicle load capacity constraint. In this model, the real‐time information of passenger demand and vehicle operation is involved to predict the imminent unacceptable headway deviation, in the case of which some in‐time preventive control strategies are deployed according to the given control rules. As a case study, a single fixed bus route with high‐frequency services was simulated and different scenarios of real‐time preventive operation control were performed. Headway adherence and average passenger wait time were used to measure bus service reliability. The results show that the improved model is closer to the real bus route service, and using real‐time information to predict potential service unreliability and trigger in‐time preventive control can reduce bus bunching and avoid big gap.

Highlights

  • Giving priority to the development of urban public transit is becoming the common view on reducing urban traffic jam and improving urban travel efficiency 1

  • In, disregarding the vehicle load capacity constraint, we developed a simulation model for fixed-route transit service unreliability prevention based on AVL-APC data, whose effectiveness was extensively demonstrated on a circular bus route

  • Based on the main framework of the model presented in 20, this paper develops an improved model for improving bus service reliability by using instantaneous prediction and preventive control strategies on high-frequency bus route, considering the dynamic interaction among random passenger demand, stochastic driving conditions of route segments and the vehicle load capacity constraint

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Summary

Introduction

Giving priority to the development of urban public transit is becoming the common view on reducing urban traffic jam and improving urban travel efficiency 1. Based on the main framework of the model presented in 20 , this paper develops an improved model for improving bus service reliability by using instantaneous prediction and preventive control strategies on high-frequency bus route, considering the dynamic interaction among random passenger demand, stochastic driving conditions of route segments and the vehicle load capacity constraint. It presents a set of decision-making rules for the potential intelligent dispatching module.

Measures of Headway-Based Bus Service Reliability
Average Passenger Wait Time
Model Development
Dynamic Interaction between Passengers and Vehicles
Real-Time Preventive Bus Operation Control
Parameters Description
Simulation Scenarios
Results and Discussion
Conclusions and Future Works
Full Text
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