An Improved Incremental Learning Approach for KPI Prognosis of Dynamic Fuel Cell System.

Abstract

The key performance indicator (KPI) has an important practical value with respect to the product quality and economic benefits for modern industry. To cope with the KPI prognosis issue under nonlinear conditions, this paper presents an improved incremental learning approach based on available process measurements. The proposed approach takes advantage of the algorithm overlapping of locally weighted projection regression (LWPR) and partial least squares (PLS), implementing the PLS-based prognosis in each locally linear model produced by the incremental learning process of LWPR. The global prognosis results including KPI prediction and process monitoring are obtained from the corresponding normalized weighted means of all the local models. The statistical indicators for prognosis are enhanced as well by the design of novel KPI-related and KPI-unrelated statistics with suitable control limits for non-Gaussian data. For application-oriented purpose, the process measurements from real datasets of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell system are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of KPI prognosis. The proposed approach is finally extended to a long-term voltage prediction for potential reference of further fuel cell applications.