An Improved Distribution Model in Strategic Transport Model of Beijing

Abstract

Beijing has been developing rapidly in terms of urbanization and motorization in recent years. The government currently undertakes a Master Plan Study to identify future population distributions among for the city proper and the surrounding satellite towns. Therefore a multi-modal strategic city wide transport model has been developed to project future travel demands on a corridor basis. In this paper, an improved distribution model is discussed, which not only takez into account traditional consideration with the travel time and cost for trip distribution estimation but also the impact of the land-use/intensity of land. The improved distribution model is a double-constraint gravity model with exponential function as the distribution function. The coefficient applied to the distribution function could vary according to combinations of origin and destination zones at various levels of land urbanization, which is represented by the proportion of agriculture population. The model calibration and its results are described in this paper.