An improved definition of official excess winter mortality statistics as the basis for detailed analysis and monitoring

Abstract

In official statistics, excess winter mortality, the number of additional deaths in a winter period, is typically defined as the difference between mortality in a winter period relative to the nonwinter periods before and after. We note two limitations of this approach: (1) the data for the period after winter is available only later, so estimates of excess winter mortality are not timely; (2) unusually high or low numbers of deaths in the non-winter periods can affect estimates. We propose an alternative statistic based on the application of standard seasonal adjustment procedures. We compare the approaches and present some illustrative analyses. The new statistic provides a more objective and timely official series, but is susceptible to revisions, which are shown to be small in practice. We recommend it as the basis of more detailed monitoring and modelling.