An improved calibration and uncertainty analysis approach using a multicriteria sequential algorithm for hydrological modeling

Abstract

Hydrological models are widely used as simplified, conceptual, mathematical representatives for water resource management. The performance of hydrological modeling is usually challenged by model calibration and uncertainty analysis during modeling exercises. In this study, a multicriteria sequential calibration and uncertainty analysis (MS-CUA) method was proposed to improve the efficiency and performance of hydrological modeling with high reliability. To evaluate the performance and feasibility of the proposed method, two case studies were conducted in comparison with two other methods, sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm (SUFI-2) and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The results indicated that the MS-CUA method could quickly locate the highest posterior density regions to improve computational efficiency. The developed method also provided better-calibrated results (e.g., the higher NSE value of 0.91, 0.97, and 0.74) and more balanced uncertainty analysis results (e.g., the largest P/R ratio values of 1.23, 2.15, and 1.00) comparing with other traditional methods for both case studies.