An improved assessment method for urban growth simulations across models, regions, and time

Abstract

For urban growth modeling, assessment metrics derived from cell-by-cell comparisons are mainly related to the size of the study area and the urban growth rate. Non-urban areas always occupy an important part of the city to which cellular automata (CA) models do not contribute much, so the simulation accuracy is often exaggerated when this part is included. To enable comparing simulation results across models, regions, and time, we developed an improved equivalent area-based assessment (EQASS) method using cell-by-cell comparison metrics. As against existing assessment methods, EQASS is computed by including the same area of urban and suburban areas (i.e., equivalent areas). EQASS was tested in three Chinese coastal cities using a heuristic CA model and two spatial statistical CA models to simulate urban growth. The results show that EQASS can exclude correct rejections that are not attributable to CA models; these correct rejections have a significant impact on the model assessment. The improved assessment can better evaluate the performance of CA models across regions and over time than the conventional assessment method that accounts for the full study area. This study extends the simulation assessment method and provides a good solution for selecting the best CA model from many candidate models.