An impact-based forecast system developed for hydrometeorological hazards

Abstract

This article describes the Impact-Based Forecast (IBF) system developed for hydrometeorological disasters in Brazil. The system was conceived on some fundamental elements: mapping risk areas for floods and mass movement events, characteristics of the vulnerability and population exposed in such areas, and implementation of a robust observational network. Data from all warnings issued between 2017 and 2021 are compared with disasters recorded during the same period. The results show the efficiency of such a system when the warning level is very high, but also the weaknesses at moderate warning levels. The system, developed for a country with a very large number of risk areas and a high level of social vulnerability of the population living in these areas, can be adapted and implemented in other countries with such similarities.