An Illusory Entente: The Myth of a Russia-China-Iran “Axis”

Abstract

The Russian factor in Sino-Iranian relations has been an outgrowth of Moscow's relations with Beijing and Tehran which each occupy distinct, though at times overlapping, roles in Russian foreign policy. Whereas the economic ties between Beijing and Tehran have been crucial in the evolution of Sino-Iranian relations, Russia-Iran relations have been driven by converging security concerns with an emphasis on regional issues ranging from the Caspian Sea to Afghanistan. This article begins with an overview of the convergences in Russia, China, and Iran's view of international order, which has materialised in the nascent collective efforts to contest the basis of ostensibly ‘liberal' norms and practices. It proceeds to examine the Russian and Chinese role in the evolution of the Iranian nuclear programme and joint Sino-Russian collaboration during P5+1 negotiations. Next, it shifts its focus to regional and domestic security through Iran's engagement with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and through Beijing and Moscow's transmission of sovereignty-boosting practices to strengthen regime stability. Finally, it concludes with Iran's role in Russian efforts to link the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) with China’s Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI) as well as the wider efforts at supporting de-dollarisation. Yet, despite ideational convergences and coordination on salient issues, it would be erroneous to suggest the existence of a formidable Russia-China-Iran axis. Rather, the tripartite relationship between Russia, China, and Iran remains an illusory entente – bereft of regularised, institutionalised relations outside of their respective bilateral ties which tend to allow only modest trilateral coordination.