An FTA Method for the Unavailability of Supply in Gas Networks Supported by Physical Models

Abstract

This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA) method for the unavailability of supply of gas networks. The method is based on the automatic generation of fault trees, which estimate the probability of disruption of the gas delivery from terminals/storages to the demand nodes. Moreover, it allows probabilistic analyses of the availability of gas supply to individual demand nodes and to the overall gas network. To assess the importance of each network component, the risk achievement worth and the risk reduction worth importance measures are utilized. The developed method can identify weakness in the gas network and can guide expansion planning and maintenance scheduling activities. Furthermore, the developed framework is enriched by steady-state analysis of the gas network operations performed using a physical flow/pressure model. The impact of a component failure on the gas supply interruption at different demand nodes is assessed by the physical model in retrospective to the FTA results. The framework is exemplified with reference to the reduced gas network of Great Britain. The results provide insights to support a robust reliability assessment of the gas network. Moreover, the probability mapping of the most important components in the gas network informs optimal strategies for maintenance scheduling as well for prioritizing improvements of the gas network aimed at significant risk reduction. Remarkably, the failure of components identified as most important according to the FTA importance measures may not have significant effects on the gas supply. A discussion on the range of applicability and limitations of the two methodologies is provided.