Abstract
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic was initiated in Wuhan Province of mainland China in December 2019 and has spread over the world. This study analyzes the effects of COVID-19 based on likely positive cases and fatality in India during and after the lockdown period from March 24, 2020, to May 24, 2020. Python has been used as the main programming language for data analysis and forecasting using the Prophet model, a time series analysis model. The data set has been preprocessed by grouping together the days for total numbers of cases and deaths on few selected dates and removing missing values present in some states. The Prophet model performs better in terms of precision on the real data. Prediction depicts that, during the lockdown, the total cases were rising but in a controlled manner with an accuracy of 87%. After the relaxation of lockdown rules, the predictions have shown an obstreperous situation with an accuracy of 60%. The resilience could have been better if the lockdown with strict norms was continued without much relaxation. The situation after lockdown has been found to be uncertain as observed by the experimental study conducted in this work.
Highlights
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is considered to be caused by a zoonotic virus because 2 earlier zoonotic viruses, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), had traces from the bat
The reason behind COVID-19 was traced to the bat because the other viruses had a sequence similar to the new coronavirus and all of them were found similar to the one sampled from bats.[1,2]
The Prophet model is usually not used in the scope of predicting a pandemic, but we have lined the parameters to analyze predictions based on the Prophet model, such as using lockdown as holidays
Summary
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is considered to be caused by a zoonotic virus because 2 earlier zoonotic viruses, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), had traces from the bat. The reason behind COVID-19 was traced to the bat because the other viruses had a sequence similar to the new coronavirus and all of them were found similar to the one sampled from bats.[1,2] This virus is said to belong to the crown family of viruses since it has crown-like projections that affect people with less immunity or having other diseases. People with this virus have said to exhibit common symptoms like dry cough, high fever, and breathlessness. This virus has an incubation period of 14 days and can be spread through respiratory droplets and close contact. The contagion can be controlled by taking mitigation measures at the right time.[3]
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