Abstract
The Akosombo Dam is the largest dam in Ghana and is linked to the world's largest man-made lake by surface area. The top of flood control pool of the dam has been breached a number of times, so it is of interest to know the corresponding probability. The paper fits the generalized extreme value distribution to the extreme water levels – with all three of its parameters (including the shape parameter) accounting for various linear trends, seasonality and cyclic trends with respect to time, the first time such a model has been fitted. The fitted model contains in total 50 parameters. It provided an adequate fit, as evaluated by probability plots, quantile plots, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. It is used to provide return level estimates as well as probabilities of the top of flood control pool of the dam being breached.
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