An extreme rainfall event in summer 2018 of Hami city in eastern Xinjiang, China

Abstract

Extreme rainfall events are rare in inland arid regions, but have exhibited an increasing trend in recent years, causing many casualties and substantial socioeconomic losses. A series of heavy rains that began on July 31st, 2018, battered the Hami prefecture of eastern Xinjiang, China for four days. These rains sparked devastating floods, caused 20 deaths, eight missing, and the evacuation of about 5500 people. This study examines the extreme rainfall event in a historical context and explores the anthropogenic causes based on analysis of multiple datasets (i.e., the observed daily data, the global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1, and the satellite cloud data) and several statistical techniques. Results show that this extraordinarily heavy rainfall was due mainly to the abnormal weather system (e.g., the abnormal subtropical high) that transported abundant water vapor from the Indian Ocean and the East China Sea crossed the high mountains and formed extreme rainfall in Hami prefecture, causing the reservoir to break and form a flood event with treat loss, which is a typical example of a comprehensive analysis of the extreme rainfall event in summer in Northwest China. Also, the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) value was 1.00 when the 2018 July–August RX1day (11.52 mm) was marked as the threshold, supporting the claim of a significant anthropogenic influence on the risk of this extreme rainfall. The results offer insights into the variability of precipitation extremes in arid areas contributing to better manage water-related disasters.