An extended GIS-based Dempster–Shafer theory for play-based hydrocarbon exploration risk analysis under spatial uncertainty conditions, case study: Zagros sedimentary basin, Iran

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis research proposes a geospatial information system (GIS)-based framework extending the Dempster–Shafer theory to manage spatial uncertainties in the hydrocarbon exploration process. The output would be a composite common risk segment (CCRS) map which categorised the study area according to the exploration risk and interval uncertainties computed by the proposed model in the GIS environment. This exhibits the quantity of the entire Dempster–Shafer functions for the hydrocarbon resources in the potential areas in the Fars domain, Zagros sedimentary basin in the central part of Iran. The produced CCRS outlines approximately 25.9% of the study area which is highly promising for the hydrocarbon potential reservation. The accuracy of the model was validated using the area under curve. It was observed that 79.6% were classified correctly for the training and 73.4% for the testing data by the applied model. According to the obtained results, the proposed knowledge guided – data-driven method enhanced the precision of the classification more than the data-driven or knowledge-driven methods separately.