An extended evidential reasoning approach with confidence interval belief structure

Abstract

In Dempster-Shafer theory, belief structure plays a key role, which provides a useful framework for information representation of uncertain variables. Basic Probability Assignment (BPA) is the most important component, which is difficult to be determined due to the uncertainty of information. Generally, there are two ways to get BPA of evidential theory: One is a subjective judgment of the expert’s experience, Interval Belief Structure (IBS) can solve the fuzziness and uncertainty of expert’s judgment. The other is an objective calculation by sampling existing data, in which BPA is viewed as the point estimate. Therefore, one of the contributions of this paper is that the definitions and theories of Confidential Interval Belief Structure (CIBS) is developed to describe BPA in Dempster-Shafer theory, which can give a range of population parameter values and contain more information to deal with the uncertainty and fuzziness of existing data. And then, based on evidential reasoning rule for counter-intuitive behavior, another contribution of this paper is that the extended evidential reasoning approach with CIBS is proposed to obtain the combined belief degree. The proposed method can be flexibly adjusted by appropriate errors and confidence levels, which is the main advantage. Finally, a case of sustainable operation of Shanghai rail transit system to verify the feasibility of proposed method and great performance of the extended method is shown.