An Exponential Curve Model and Its Application in Forecasting Private Car Ownership of China

Abstract

To solve problems of modeling and prediction of nonstationary sequences caused by deterministic factors in the real world, a new type of exponential curve model with first-order polynomial term is proposed in this paper based on the classical exponential curve model and the modified exponential curve model. According to the characteristics of the new model, the piecewise summation method is adopted to determine the analytical expressions of parameters. Moreover, the model is applied to the ownership of private cars in China. Comparing the calculated results with the classical exponential curve model and the modified exponential curve model, it can be seen that the new exponential curve model has higher accuracy in the analysis of the ownership of private cars in China.