Abstract
BackgroundDrowning is a leading cause of accidental death in children under 14 years of age in Guangdong, China. We developed a statistical model to classify the risk of drowning among children based on the risk factors.MethodsA multiple-stage cluster random sampling was employed to select the students in Grades 3 to 9 in two townships in Qingyuan, Guangdong. Questionnaire was a self-reported measure consisting of general information, knowledge, attitudes and activities. A univariate logistic regression model was used to preliminarily select the independent variables at a P value of 0.1 for multivariable model. Three-quarters of the participants were randomly selected as a training sample to establish the model, and the remaining were treated as a testing sample to validate the model.ResultsA total of 8390 children were included in this study, about 12.18% (1013) experienced drowning during the past one year. In the univariate logistic regression model, introvert personality, unclear distributions of water areas on the way to school, and bad relationships with their classmates and families were positively associated with drowning. However, females, older age and lower swimming skills were negatively associated with drowning. After employing the prediction model with these factors to estimate drowning risk of the students in the testing samples, the results of Hosmer-Lemeshow tests showed non-significant differences between the predictive results and actual risk (χ2 = 5.97, P = 0.65).ConclusionsMale, younger children, higher swimming skills, bad relationship with their classmates and families, introvert personality and unclear distributions of water areas on the way to school were important risk factors of non-fatal drowning among children. The prediction model based on these variables has an acceptable predictive ability.
Highlights
Drowning is a leading cause of accidental death in children under 14 years of age in Guangdong, China
Drowning is a leading cause of accidental death in children under 14 years of age in China [2, 3] and in Guangdong Province located in southern China [4]
Univariate analysis on the risk factors of drowning in children Younger students, males, higher swimming skill, introvert personality, unclear distributions of water areas on the way to school, bad relationships with classmates and family were significantly associated with drowning risk in the univariate regression analyses (Table 2)
Summary
Drowning is a leading cause of accidental death in children under 14 years of age in Guangdong, China. We developed a statistical model to classify the risk of drowning among children based on the risk factors. Drowning is a leading cause of accidental death in children under 14 years of age in China [2, 3] and in Guangdong Province located in southern China [4]. A series of intervention measures has been implemented in China, drowning in children remains an important public health issue [5, 6]. We conducted this study to establish an exploratory model for predicting drowning risk among children. We conducted this study in two rural townships in Qingyuan City of Guangdong Province because of the high mortality rate due of drowning and abundant natural and man-made open water bodies
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