An exploratory investigation into the influence of risk factors on driver injury severity in angle crashes: A random parameter bivariate ordered probit model approach

Abstract

Objective Angle crashes have been acknowledged as a concerning issue in the traffic safety field, though there is limited understanding of the contributions of risk factors to injury severity. This article aims to examine the impact of risk factors and unobserved heterogeneity on the severity of driver injuries in angle collisions by utilizing angle crash data in the United States from 2016 to 2021. Methods The relationship between risk factors and driver injury severities in angle crashes was investigated using a random parameter bivariate ordered probit model (RPBOP) with 4 categories of injury severity classified as outcome variables, including no injury, possible injury, minor injury, and serious jury. Risk factors were considered as explanatory variables, classified as driver characteristics, vehicle characteristics, road characteristics, environmental characteristics, time characteristics, and crash characteristics. Bayesian inference was used to assess the unobserved heterogeneity in risk factors, and marginal effects were computed to analyze the effect of each factor on injury outcomes. Results The findings demonstrate that risk factors have varying effects on driver involvement in angle crashes. Certain factors exhibited unobserved heterogeneity, including young drivers (ages 25–44), older drivers (over age 59), road grade, and collision point orientation. On the other hand, other factors, such as female gender, motorcycles, intersections, speed limit (>50 mph), poor lighting conditions, adverse weather, urban areas, and workdays, were shown to significantly increase the likelihood of driver injury in angle collisions, as well as increase susceptibility to fatal injury. Conclusions This article offers new insights into reducing driver injuries in angle crashes and has the potential to inform policy development aimed at preventing such incidents. Further research could utilize multisource data fusion and investigate the spatiotemporal stability of risk factors to enhance the generalizability of angle collision prevention strategies.