An exploratory and comparative assessment of the tourist circulation at the level of some countries of the South-Eastern European union in the current pandemic context

Abstract

The coronavirus epidemic (COVID19) has affected the global economy and the services sector. Quarantine measures related to travel restrictions have led to an unprecedented decline in the tourism industry with repercussions on tourism service providers, transport companies and state budgets. Travel is necessary for tourism, therefore, any factor that prevents travel can have a profound impact on the tourism industry. In the current pandemic context, the forecast in the field of tourist travel has played an important role in supporting the revival of this sector. In this study, econometric and interpretive methods were combined to predict the demand. In this study we approached a prediction model that is based on the seasonal stationary and adjustment of observed and FFT data. Experimental results show that the proposed prediction model has demonstrated a good medium-term forecast and can be used successfully in short and medium periods of time. For a certification of the exploratory evaluation of tourism forecasts there were comparatively analyzed the results obtained for three countries in south-eastern Central Europe, countries with similar natural and anthropic tourist resources (Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania).