An exploration of the paradoxical violation effect

Abstract

The developmental increase in reported violations at the same time that the accident rate is decreasing (paradoxical violation effect) was investigated. Two explanations of the increase in violations were considered, one involving an increase in normative pressure to violate and the other a release of the tendency to violate. While there was no definitive evidence in favour of the normative pressure hypothesis there was evidence consistent with the release hypothesis. Two general explanations of the paradoxical violation effect were examined. The critical period hypothesis proposes that early in development new drivers are particularly sensitive to violations while the second hypothesis proposes that there is an independent factor that operates early in development to increase accidents but diminishes later. Specific instantiations of these hypotheses were examined. At the general level the two hypotheses make opposing predictions concerning the relationship between violations and accident involvement, with the critical period hypothesis predicting a developmental decrease in the correlation between violations and accident involvement and the independent factor hypothesis predicting a developmental increase in the correlation between violations and accident involvement. A developmental decrease in the correlation between violations and accident involvement was found supporting the critical period hypothesis.