An Exploration of Dynamical Relationships between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Prices in Korea

Abstract

This paper examines short-run and long-run dynamic relationships between selected macroeconomic variables and stock prices in the Korea Stock Exchange. The data is restricted to the period for which monthly data are available from January 1986 to October 2016 (370 observations) retrieved from the Economic Statistics System database sponsored by the Bank of Korea. The study employs unit root test, cointegration test, vector error correction estimates, impulse response test, and structural break test. The results of the Johansen cointegration test indicate at least three cointegrating equations exist at the 0.05 level in the model, confirming that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Korea. The results of vector error correction model (VECM) estimates indicate that money supply and short-term interest rate are not related to stock prices in the short-run. However, exchange rate is positively related to stock prices while the industrial production index and inflation are negatively related to stock prices in the short-run. Furthermore, the VECM estimates indicate that the external shock, such as regional and global financial crisis shocks, neither affects changes in the endogenous variables nor causes instability in the cointegrating vector. This study finds that the endogenous variables are determined by their own dynamics in the model.