Abstract
Road crashes are the sixth leading cause of death in India. There has been a fourfold increase in the number of road traffic crashes in India in the last four decades and an increase of 9.8 times in the fatalities associated with that exponential increase. Manipal is a coastal place with a population of approximately 50,000 inhabitants lying in between the western Mountain range and the Arabian sea. The study’s objective is to explore the characteristics of fatal road crashes in Manipal from 2008–2018 using the data pertaining to fatal crashes retrieved from the office of the superintendent of police. Furthermore, it aims to forecast crashes by time series analysis prediction. The results show that most of the fatal crashes are due to exceeding the lawful speed limit, followed by driving under the influence of alcohol and going ahead and overtaking. The time series analysis forecasted the number of fatal crashes until the year 2025 and predicted that there will be an increase in the number of fatal road crashes by 4.5%. The results also provide essential leads for initiating specific intervention programmes targeting the causes of fatal road crashes.
Highlights
Road traffic crashes have become the major public health challenge of the 21st century
The burden of road crashes is disproportionately borne by vulnerable road users living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the growing number of deaths is aggravated by increasingly motorized transport [2]
The current study was based in the university town of Manipal, which is unique in its own way, due to ostensibly varied demographical characteristics and climatic conditions
Summary
Road traffic crashes have become the major public health challenge of the 21st century. Every year more than 1.35 million people lose their lives due to road crashes, making it one of the leading causes of death worldwide [1]. The burden of road crashes is disproportionately borne by vulnerable road users living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the growing number of deaths is aggravated by increasingly motorized transport [2]. With a population of close to 1.37 billion people, India faces the worst ever road congestion in most cities and towns, and Indian roads have become more vulnerable to road crashes. As per the report published by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, 151,417 persons were killed and 469,418 injured in road traffic crashes in India in 2018 [5]
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