Abstract
When the first free-floating carsharing operators launched their business, they did not know if it would be profitable. They often started in highly populated cities without performing extensive target group analysis, and were less concerned about fleet management. Usually, there are two main datasets that can be used to find areas that would have a high demand for free-floating carsharing: booking data, for measuring the actual demand; and land use and census data for describing the activities performed in different areas in a city. In this paper, we aim to use this information to help predict the demand of free-floating carsharing systems. We use booking data provided by DriveNow for Berlin in 2014 and contextual information about the type of activity each neighborhood has. Using Berlin as a case study, we apply a negative binomial statistical model to explain the number of bookings. From the results, we conclude that free-floating carsharing is predominantly successful in areas with more affluent citizens who are open to trying new and sustainable technologies. Other important determinants that result in a high number of carsharing bookings are the area’s centrality and parking lot availability. The statistical model for Berlin was then transferred to Munich and Cologne, two other cities in Germany with similar population sizes. A comparison between the estimated demand categories and actual bookings shows satisfying results, but also non-negligible local conditions influencing the spatial demand for bookings.
Highlights
Free-floating carsharing (FFCS) has become a new mode of transportation in big European and American cities
The application of the negative binomial model starts with the variable selection
The chosen data are useful in explaining most of the hot spots in a city as is visible from the transfer of the Berlin model to Munich and Cologne
Summary
Free-floating carsharing (FFCS) has become a new mode of transportation in big European and American cities. Users do not need to return their carsharing vehicle to their original location, but can start and finish their trip at any parking lot within the operating area. This flexibility has made FFCS a more attractive option over traditional round-trip models. Operators usually adopt a piecemeal approach when launching FFCS in new cities. Operators focus on the city centre and gradually integrate new peripheral districts. A definition of promising districts could, help the operator decide whether or not to include new city districts into its operating area. Operators can shorten vehicle idle times by planning the system to match the existing market demand
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