An explainable artificial intelligence based approach for the prediction of key performance indicators for 1 megawatt solar plant under local steppe climate conditions

Abstract

Motivated by the growing significance of solar energy, the paper presents the findings of the maiden study on the long-term seasonal performance assessment of three PV module technologies—monocrystalline (m-Si), polycrystalline (p-Si), and amorphous silicon (a-Si) housed in a 1 MW solar plant installed at a local steppe climate in Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India using the key performance indicators (KPIs), daily power generation, final yield (Yf), reference yield (Yr), total energy loss (TEL) and performance ratio (PR). Notably, the am-Si PV modules were found to be the best performing technology, with an average PR of 71.26% and the lowest average total energy loss of 631 h during the monitored period. Moreover, PV systems have become more popular as a source of green, clean energy; yet, they have low base-load energy sustainability. Explainable AI (XAI) aids in understanding predictions made by the machine learning models. The importance of XAI lies in the comprehension and trust which is embedded into the results of machine learning algorithms. Therefore, the present work builds a comprehensive XAI model for predicting KPIs and assesses the performance of several learning algorithms using R-value, MAE, the number of iterations, and execution time. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm predicts the KPIs for p-Si, am-Si, and m-Si with prediction accuracies of 98.63%, 98.58%, and 90.09%, respectively. In summary, this study not only advances our understanding of PV module performance in a steppe climate context but also contributes to the broader field by integrating an XAI model for transparent and reliable predictions of the KPIs.